The Obama 2012 Landslide.

This is assuming that his presidency is a success, and he is able to fulfill most of his promises and turn the economy around.

I gave him every state he's predicted to win now, every state that Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996, and also Indiana and North Dakota, which are considered toss ups this year.

He would win 455-83.

I think that's a little much. I think Southern Democrats, the ones who loved Clinton and Gore because they were both from the South, might finally go for Obama if his first four years are a success.

Of course, it also depends on who the Republicans pick in 2012. If they run a Southerner against Obama/Biden, the South (but perhaps not Virginia and North Carolina) will remain Republican.

If they go the fiscal conservative route (someone like Romney) and realize the social conservatives are an insane minority, the South will be more competitive.

Here are the states that will probably be going Obama in 2012 but McCain in 2008: (If Obama does a good job)

Arizona - They are becoming more liberal, and the only realize they are Solid McCain is he is a respected senator in the state. Without the home state advantage, Arizona will probably go to Obama in four years.

West Virginia - They voted for Clinton in 1992/96, and it's a toss up this year, though it looks like McCain will pull it off.

Indiana - Another close state that will probably go for McCain, but depending on the success
of Obama's first four years, it will go for Obama.

North Dakota/Montana - Two close races this year that would go to Obama if he does well.

Georgia - Not as close as the other states listed, but they'd probably still switch over if Obama did well.

The South in general tends to be swayed more by the economy (and Southerners on the ticket.)

The Southern states that went with Clinton could go for Obama by 2012.

Even Texas is possible but not likely. They tend to vote for Texans over anything. There's been a Bush on the ticket every election but one from 1980 to 2004, but in 1976, 1968, 1964, and 1960, they went with the Democrats.

Reasonably for 2012, I predict something around the level of Bush-Dukakis. I also am optimistic for Obama's presidency. If he does well enough it could be the level of Reagan-Carter.

I think the bottom for Obama is probably Kerry's situation or a bit worse. I am very optimistic he will be around for 8 years. The Republicans are split into many factions and they have to reorganize. That's going to take more than 4 years.