Saturday, September 13, 2008

Who Lies More?

Obama, McCain, Palin, Biden.

Obama:

114 total claims. Note this includes the primaries.

I haven't gone through all of these, but I might do something in a few days.

Basically, Obama is VERY honest for a politican. I will call True/Mostly True/Half True Truth, and Barely True/False/Pants on Fire a lie.

So Obama
True: 73.7%
False: 26.3%

This looks good, so I will now do McCain.

113 Claims.

Pants on Fire, are of course, the worst. It means a complete lie intentionally done. False may not be as intentional.

McCain:

True: 56.7%
Lie: 43.3%

So, the old adage about Politicians lying all the time is false, but Obama is significantly more honest than McCain.

Let me put it this way. It may not be that big of a difference, but theoretically, the odd of two Obama statements being true is 54.3% (73.3% squared), that is two statements. Almost as much as McCain's 1 true. Two McCain statements being true is a lot less. Only 32.1%.

The difference is less than 20% but in the long run it matters.

Now I will do the VP, but this is unfair to Biden because it includes anything he said over the entire primary season and Palin JUST entered the race.

Palin so far cannot be analyzed. They keep the woman silent for good reason. I mean she is a woman. Just kidding. There are female Republican senators. It's because she's a dumb hockey mom who doesn't know shit.

She's only made 8 statements and all of them are in the True range. That is not enough to measure. I will admit I am biased, but I'd say you'd need close to 100 to get a good idea.

She has flopped on Global Warming (or McCain told her, you're for fixing it or GTFO the Gay talk Express.") And on the bridge to nowhere.

Get it, Gay opposite of straight? :-P

Now Biden.

Actually, Biden has not had enough statements, but from what I saw he leaned toward the True side.

But Obama is more honest than McCain, and that gap will widen as McCain continues to let his campaign write his ads and put his "I approve that message" on them when he may not actually approve them himself, but decided to just let the Dark Lords take over and go against his old ways of being a good person and honest man.

In a monthi I will post an update to this and see who is being more honest.

And one more.

Chain emails.

39 total.Yup.

True: 23%
False: 77%

So question for you. McCain and Obama each say three things, and a chain email says one. Who do you trust.

Obama: 40%
McCain: 18.2%

As you can see, Obama's gap becomes more important. If Obama tells you 3 things, there is a 40% chance that ALL THREE are true. it's late, so I won't do binomial probability here, but I will do a bit more.

Even at 4 statements, Obama is more likely to be true ALL FOUR TIMES than one chain email!

And at 5 statements, he's at 21.7%, just barely below one chain email.

This is important to people who care. All these claims are documented and graded.

Obama also has never had a Pants on Fire moment, meaning he doesn't make obvious horrible lies like McCain does. The Palin chain emails do, but that is not related to Obama. Blaming Obama for MoveOn is like blaming McCain for FreeRepublic.

Sorry for the blogs. I love Obama and people need to realize he really is different. Think about it. If I were to bet on 4 things being true said by Obama (all four) vs one chain email being true, it'd be wise to bet on Obama.


The straight talk express derailed. McCain is a bitter old man who realized that he couldn't be a moderate sane person and win the election. It's sad.

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